Thursday, March 30, 2006

Friday, March 17, 2006

Gambling News

Here's some more great gambling tidbits from Darren Rovell's sports Business Blog on the eve of what should be a Great Tournament. I love this stuff.

Careers publisher Vault Inc. says that 67 percent of employees admit to taking part in office betting pools for March Madness. That number, the company says, is up 6 percent from last year. According to its survey, which included 328 employees from organizations across the country, 80.5 percent of people aren't bothered by the fact that office pools are technically illegal, while 86 percent of offices did not specifically have a company policy against betting pools.

Workplace productivity: Every year, workplace consultant Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. predicts how much will be lost in workplace productivity because of the tournament. This year's number is $3.8 billion, and chief executive John Challenger says that could be a conservative estimate now that CBS will show the games online for free this year. I think people might be less productive at work, but I'm not sure it's this bad. Why? Because this assumes that people are productive in their 9-5 jobs anyway, which is not even close to true. For those people at Challenger, Gray & Christmas who don't believe me, come to Bristol and I'll show you when people are hitting up our site. In Vault Inc.'s survey, 73.5 percent of people said they spent only 5-10 minutes at the office making their picks and saved further research for when they're at home. Then factor in this: Tournament games are only being played over four work days.



How much is bet? So many people want to know these days exactly how much is gambled on the NCAA Tournament. It's impossible to know because online gambling and office pools are obviously not reported in the way Las Vegas is. The latest estimates I've seen from industry pundits is that about $3.5 billion to $4 billion is bet on the tournament, with a nice chunk of that coming from online. The 180 or so sports books in Las Vegas only take in about $90 million in bets, while estimates have online bookmakers taking in more than $1.2 billion, which would about double the money taken in online on this year's Super Bowl. One of the reasons why the money online continues to go up is because, on some sites, bettors can risk a tremendous amount on one game. Sites like PinnacleSports.com will take up to $30,000 on one game.



Best bet? Around this time of year I always have people asking me if there's anything new and different on the betting scene around tournament time. One of the coolest things I've seen this year is PicksPal.com. The site allows players to wager points on over/unders and props. Once you register (registration is free and not cumbersome), you go to the bracket. Say you click on the first-round matchup of Memphis vs. Oral Roberts. You can pick the game, but you will also see props such as:



Will R. Carney be the game's leading scorer?


Which team's starters will score more points?


In which half will Memphis score more points?



The site also promises to have live in-game picks for fans to make. The fan with the highest point total at the end of each round will win an iPod, while the overall winner will win a 42-inch flat plasma HDTV.



Did the players really know the spread? Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania, thinks his data shows they do. The New York Times recently profiled Wolfers, who has collected the results of almost every college basketball game over the past 16 years. Wolfers' data shows that smaller favorites -- teams favored by 12 or fewer points -- beat the spread about 50 percent of the time, while heavy favorites cover in only 47 percent of their games. According to the New York Times, given the volume of data that Wolfers has collected, he surmises that the difference is significant and that players on top teams might be shaving points. Wolfers contends that the players are aware of the spreads based on the fact that there are too many games where favorites either barely cover by one or two points or don't cover by the same margin. It's hard to tell how much the players know, but I don't think a majority of them have the spread in mind when they are on the court.

Thursday, March 16, 2006

Red Vs. Blue

You should check this out if you get bored. There are something like 78 episodes on these guys' website and most of them are on Youtube as well. I thought it was funny at least and I played the hell out of Halo so it’s funny to see the drama unfold amongst these characters. Then again I am a pretty unique individual with tastes that range far and wide. I like to think of myself as a modern day renaissance man, but without all the painting or production of anything of value.

Thoughts for the day:

1) I have a love hate relationship with the NCAAs. It's just a lot of pouring over stats and game logs and match-ups that never seem to help me in the end. That being said; I can't wait for them to start.

2) I'll have you know he was a ball hog... The voice-over is the best part... no wait the fact that it's real and you can buy it is the best part.

3) The Playstation 3 has been delayed again, this time till November, causing Sony shares to plunge about 2 percent on the Tokyo Stock exchange. Not cool guys. Even the great Sony can't afford to piss off their fans THIS much, by repeatedly pushing back their products. I guess we should all know better considering it's a common occurrence. I just have one comment to direct to Sony: You made me look like a jerk the other day when I said the PS3 was coming out on a certain date and it wasn't. Jerks.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Best Prank Ever

So I was wandering around the internet one day and I ran across this story. It is a story of the most successful subterfuge in sportsfan history and it demands a place in the echelons of time, as the benchmark of what people in stands can do to (non-violently) affect the outcome of a game.

Here is a blogger who got the main facts down and got 'em down well,

And here is the story in the Chicago Tribune, via the Los Angeles Times.

Pruitt backs it up Big Time Thursday night Baby!

Reaction: It shouldn't have taken a genius to come up with this evil plan but apparently it helps as was the case with these Berkeley fans.

Other things I'm thinking about:
1) Fantasy baseball is in full swing and I am going crazy studying up. Do you know who Erik Bedard is? I do. Take THAT!

2) At the same time work is ridiculous because we have the China Business Summit coming up. I stayed at work till 1am last night editing and what not. I'm about to fall over.

3) Just started reading this comic book called Berserk. Good stuff. You should try it sometime. They need to make more of the Anime though. It ends right in the middle of the story. If you want to make a difference go to here to petition the re-starting of the anime series.

4) Culpepper to Miami for a second round draft pick... I can't believe the Vikes have traded away their 2 best players in the last two years and they have virtually nothing to show for it. Troy Williamson and a 2006 second round pick don't compare favorably to Moss and Culpepper...

5) March Madness is coming up and I havn't even really looked at a bracket yet. I'm just bidding my time until I can see the National Bracket on ESPN. It's usually better than 90% of indiviual brackets. If you need more proof that groups are smarter than the individual, check out The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki.

6) From the department of Predictable happenings: Mark Prior is feeling pain in his throwing arm. I almost drafted him in my pay league this year because it's not often you can pick up a pitcher of his caliber (even an oft injured one) in the 8th round. I'm glad I didn't.

7) Alex Rodriguez is on a tear at the World Baseball Classic. I think we need to start calling him Mr. March.

8) And finally, I don't want to hear anything more about Barry Bonds, unless it's about him hitting a Homerun. If you didn't already know he was taking steroids then you are naive. Thank you and goodnight.

Monday, March 06, 2006

Stealers

I'm too late. These guys stole my idea to make a movie about this kid, as seen in Darren Rovell's Sports Business Blog. Are they going to work into the movie the fact that no one was guarding him because the other team couldn't give a care? How about the fact that he is a narcissistic ball-hog. You guys can have the feel good story of the year. Give me "Jason McElwain: True Rochester Story." I'm not jealous, I just consider it my job to take people down a peg.

Too good to be true?
Most of you have seen the story of senior Jason McElwain, an autistic high school senior who was put into a basketball game for a feel-good moment.

Well, unlike most of these stories, McElwain -- who is the manager who had never played in a game -- went off. He scored 20 points in a little more than four minutes and was carried off the court as the game's the leading scorer.

If you expected Hollywood companies to be calling, they are. McElwain's father told the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle that he has received about 25 inquiries from movie production companies interested in buying the rights to his son's story. Congratulations Jason, you already have 24,600 hits on Google!

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Damn My Cold, Black Heart

Watch this -->



Now, I'm not a totally insensitive guy. I even might have shed a tear after seeing this video. Great story. Great kid. Great movie material. But it only took me a couple of minutes to ponder whether the meticulous nature of an autistic person would translate into success in a sport that requires more practice and habit formation than that of basketball. Yes, I'm talking about baseball.

Don't get me wrong, the compulsive tendencies of a person with autism might help in basketball. God knows that to have any kind of a shot you have to throw up hundreds of shots a day. But basketball is a fluid game where the most creative have success. Baseball is all about the bodies ability to remember form. The greatest pitchers ever to play the game have had stretches where their mechanics failed them. Hitters go into slumps because of the smallest change to their swing.

I really am just rambling. I shouldn't have even wrote anything for this post. I should have just shut-up and basked in this touching moment (right after trying to get the movie rights).

The Awful Results of Years and Years of Steroid Abuse.



Some Observations:

- The enlarged breasts and neck.

- "Roid Rage" is evident when opinion is confronted.

- After seeing that, Paula Abdul now seems a lot hotter.

- Over inflated sense of self worth.

- This was the first time we saw Bonds act this way to any degree. It was also the first day of coverage for the camera crew that will follow him all season in pursuit of HR records. Playing for the camera maybe...

- Bon Jovi officially sets the record for the most horrible attempts to have song covered, a title formerly held by Queen.

- Rob Schnieder is still alive... damn.

You Just Got Brokebacked!!

So "Brokeback" is the Hollywood word of the year. If you are too lazy to read the article it said that "The nonprofit group Global Language Monitor placed "Brokeback" -- as in the film title "Brokeback Mountain" -- at the top of its list of Hollywood words and phrases that captured attention this year. Overall, a Google search shows more than 38 million references to the film, although only about 10 million people saw the movie." Wow! What does "Brokeback" win? I'd like to see it receive the honor of becoming a verb as so many other nouns have(e.g. partied). This would open up a proverbial treasure chest of possibilities.

"Brokebacked" could mean a myriad of different things, from simply being sodomized by a cowboy to just getting screwed over in general. Speaking of which, I know I should have brought this up a long time ago but the creators of South Park, Trey Stone and Matt Parker, actually came up with the premise years before the Ang Lee directed film came out. Here is a quote from the immortal Cartman lamenting the rise of Indy films: "No dude, independent films are those black and white hippie movies. They're always about gay cowboys eating pudding." Amazing but true.

...Not That There's Anything Wrong With That

I'm sorry but this is very funny...